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- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。0 f5 X+ z$ T" C" y
8 X& o6 K, L# `4 j' }, ?GM Overview% }2 @! B1 H! s/ a/ k
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
2 n) h7 ~( s0 F1 S1 ~+ Y0 y• Objectives2 D- U" [; x4 n! G
– What do we “WANT” to do?" w4 b9 K* S0 x
• External Analysis
& b( w* r7 X3 y+ A3 d3 P8 `7 l– What do we “NEED” to do?
4 d% [* }- S$ _) h– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade! V8 t1 S7 S. n! B4 d7 _" G8 z9 ^
• opportunities & threats" `6 ~! Y( _' K) G: @2 I+ W6 X
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
# y/ V5 s, p% p1 _• Internal Analysis6 Q. O ]' D. y2 W& `6 c$ t
– What “CAN” we do?' B' @; z. k7 j' K a. i( J
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR( Y9 d3 V$ l: P4 p, i4 D {
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses) C2 W* g; \! a2 V( b
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES6 f+ m9 R, {' Y% a
, R( f2 K# }! d$ K• Alternative Evaluation
; u$ J% O" r, ? ^– What are the options?
" U: Y. A+ F4 n# d! O5 I– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
6 C* O# b. d: _– How does this option “FIT”?
+ ]4 A8 \# a$ P- E7 i L4 X– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
$ W; n6 l& J' c5 N7 Z– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) 0 L* L6 m* u$ I; d" j% _$ j
3 B. F# O: w: B' \( l9 C
• Decision
- I' s% X3 G) E. R5 `4 o$ o+ D– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).. p0 A4 C0 `% y/ _3 Y4 R; ^
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
) ~; v& |# c/ }/ V# c0 E% T& M7 p• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
8 s6 _% k: M7 }! q8 x) F2 J• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?8 |) H% r! F4 x n. T
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
1 z- } R: ~& |3 I• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)1 F s7 @( O: @" ]1 U
• Why NOT the other options?
6 j4 [! o* w$ { c& ]• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
2 j. o3 t& D, Uneed to be made?
( Y9 l+ v8 z( W- N# h* v% Z
i' G+ y" G& j5 t9 n0 J1 I• Action Plan$ v4 f( T* J( i4 ^- e
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;5 c% x' N1 {3 u: _. Z8 g& B
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
9 K% I' j! |$ d( S6 @1 tdecision
, G6 v7 }" l9 C1 ^9 O– details about timing
0 W; V' C T# N4 R" C" W! e4 W– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’$ L0 G/ f1 W( w4 J7 ]
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)8 m9 ]* d5 s$ \# {0 |: `
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
8 Z r7 G' D2 r* q2 U# _! p7 a/ U8 S6 F" Z3 Y/ h/ k
Firm Valuation
3 [! ~1 @( y" s# J7 M• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
0 s0 M- ?7 \) x6 f) Z' w }0 r& V• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
y3 j0 L7 R% Q– Net Book Value
2 K; o ?* j5 m, ~1 w9 n– Economic Appraisal
! p& {; |) u( c/ E2 Y9 n* R8 u) b5 p– Capitalization of Earnings; E% q, ]! ]) @) ~ Q
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
. D! I) a- p5 Dcompany is worth.1 j- a) Z4 \. p% g6 C
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???" {* [: T7 x6 n2 ?& O* o4 W$ k
$ d. d: k4 I- Z) u/ u, b* F$ [2 Y
Net Book Value (NBV)/ J9 T' B3 } D8 ^' m8 B7 E, `
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
& J- X& L5 Y7 j• a.k.a.. the equity, z( S' m: _& b7 ^+ U" k" r8 U
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets( E. r% ]8 X7 l' P0 i6 G+ i
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet g& A' w* H* R m D) s5 `
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business$ V: |+ E1 C" a* u" s# g) }
) m" J' {" b# c1 {0 a2 T Economic Appraisal (EA)7 M- `( D9 W+ u1 u& j# b0 k6 E
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
; Z; f3 X% s6 p" `0 _) K8 T– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
4 U$ ?+ M% m$ J8 r: y/ Q) v0 w5 U6 B– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
* C3 k T7 I% ^) H' C, O# K
# e, s, T% X8 v1 M( M- }9 Z Capitalization of Earnings (CE)# K" q0 q) l6 ^
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S( ?3 O0 z6 H1 a
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.3 i8 }$ Y9 ~: ^
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
6 m N- J, f. P$ J3 G– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
! L! o" r7 {+ F• Assuming changes (projected statement)+ j5 j* L4 z8 y$ N
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)9 Y& m2 a! J$ j; t" {0 j8 j* b
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple/ e1 Q- P+ z6 X5 m6 s
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management), O, _) H8 G; {
: j) e; c# v3 J
• P/E Multiple$ |8 f- {' b/ c2 K
– Rules of thumb;+ B" k, @9 d0 ^8 _" @1 r" M
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
1 ]. K* {% p8 A- Pfrom 5 to 15.3 p2 h. U" `& n9 H' \; W
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
K# Y9 W+ M; p- M% A) C8 w• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
( J" U3 B* @1 T– growth increases a multiple
. y4 T9 u2 @" \) Z/ x– risk decreases a multiple
$ y6 ~/ T; X5 @ g& T `! h% D5 r2 z* c: z# R# D/ X9 ^+ ]
Their Associated Ratios. c# t, L9 x8 x8 U3 ]0 Q/ e
• Profitability;# ^! C7 }! O5 a# S, d
– Business goal - to make $$
+ F: w' K2 B3 F5 q; x; }& N– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
( |1 t+ G! E/ y• Stability;6 W2 \# E7 ^2 A" N8 `
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
: Y E$ q0 u! ]3 n– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
& v) g. N C! w$ J( t3 ?' Z
: ~6 u, m: ]5 R! _! d7 |" Y5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
6 H1 d; H7 g' [ • Liquidity;+ r. q$ V" ^7 I2 |: X
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
# x' r5 I8 b8 R# c! g. T– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm5 l3 s! `- G0 F/ m
obligations)
* Z: {6 C. z/ C0 w% x; Y• Efficiency;; ^! @- t" \$ Z2 M, X4 n
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets0 B% ?* U/ U4 B
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments6 ?* G& `' Y9 n; a5 s
% t. b+ e+ A ^* K# k8 U
• Growth;
8 O- d% z6 z4 Y, j0 L% E* W) P5 K– Business goal - to increase in size
: Y2 B$ k4 O7 |$ i– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
( c: e3 A1 C. i' G; S1 h' S2 G9 m$ X' X4 Q* o+ ]) f! w* s6 {' R. M' T" ^
Interpreting the Ratios
2 o# U( X' ?2 v• Profitability;
& r: `7 D/ Z" J. z0 _– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
5 p5 ~8 T& x9 ]I/S items * 100 = %
3 P& e' d5 r* W Sales, d" ]$ w* f# m9 W
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales. n4 n+ ~9 a* l
– Return on Investment/Equity
) O1 W/ U% J& X+ L8 W4 s' K8 |9 DProfit ATB4D = % # B. }3 w0 E; }5 e( ~2 o0 r1 x! d
Average Equity3 ~3 d8 x3 N$ ^. w0 y
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
) o p1 k3 E% V7 O9 K, u• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners8 J; `- K* o+ ?4 a( ~8 f
3 C1 X6 g8 X+ ~( m8 w
• Stability;+ p9 Q8 y7 \6 H9 |5 p1 F
– Net Worth: Total Assets
+ J/ f' A5 D4 | E* ~0 z2 ^/ M/ ZTotal Equity = % ' i: j* V9 m1 N( K* w0 `
Total Assets$ j5 [6 K6 M+ \
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
, p8 f+ a8 v7 P8 U9 Z– Debt to Assets* S. B, j& j6 |# ]; V
Total Debt = %
# t; m4 K0 `/ q# i: ^! D4 LTotal Assets
+ a0 w, _, y! i1 |• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt* `- Z$ q0 e% x6 d S' D
– Interest Coverage
1 B+ v7 z$ S$ K: I" j: \ EBIT = # times) U" v8 F; V0 U( Z6 U" p% M
Interest Expense) N) D; c: Q- f+ H5 m' P' J
• tells us how many times we can pay interest8 }* C6 Z, {9 X* w4 a4 L, Z1 O
2 |& k8 ? k1 c+ C• Liquidity;( K2 k2 G" D r3 a$ B9 D; o6 z# F, T" k
– Current Ratio( x# B2 {3 U+ N
Current Assets = X:1
5 Q0 H4 E3 i. S0 tCurrent Liabilities/ T; J2 ]# _0 e* L
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
% w. m9 [* Y$ U2 i4 ]+ fRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
1 C0 F4 B+ k4 s( N! J. t– Acid Test" u2 Y! Q& W2 V; E8 Z: |! n
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1
/ T; o3 n% q% O9 w, ~2 e# O% j2 mCurrent Liabilities
/ Y; R/ |8 ^0 m% \- H6 {• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us3 p$ `% R6 @$ h2 u* x1 K
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1
4 x. \, o" {$ m" O
( j5 G2 U4 k: s+ b9 {; y# H1 a6 u– Working Capital
' p& Q8 U4 w) W! o( fC.A - C.L = $X
( X( {/ K; c, \4 r' x8 e• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid: ]8 ?5 o& x6 Y( m6 n
0 k1 K* t& ^: VEfficiency;7 F$ ~ F$ C8 }* _% [! ]% E
– Age of Receivables" h- P+ _: E2 R" R) g( \; A' Y# z3 `
Accounts Receivabl = # Days$ w& X# ?: }) q8 Q3 k! ^: g3 z
(Sales / 365)# M# H7 d2 e& D% c
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$$ }7 r& h" S$ L- b2 A
2 G1 m; G8 e. R8 S. |8 J0 T, ~# s% E$ n– Age Of Payables1 Q+ x& u& T% n1 B4 _
Accounts Payable = # Days
9 V2 d) y8 Q& z) b$ c8 M: K(Purchases* / 365)
& K" ?9 P- ~# c+ T2 N8 m3 z$ x, p5 t• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
( U& o5 t* V3 j2 s! ?
4 ]& w- n! v4 [: N& ^$ e! o0 i– Age of Inventory
[) a/ A% W* k! j8 c9 ^2 D6 @' k2 X Inventory = # Days0 o) Y- ^* d7 M
(COGS / 365)
: O9 A2 R% I) B9 U) D' L• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
* j' N! q9 T! k: P3 ?- m8 i- |' @- W& l9 x' X4 K3 J; z
• Growth;
$ s/ [* u" H1 L: H– Sales+ c2 Y5 ~3 Q5 h: p6 E4 f
– Net Income0 z* L1 x, I- V" J0 {
– Total Assets
! V( L; t: O% d( b– Equity5 B; ~" o, u) \5 k$ z0 p
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
, y; P T/ ^ h3 [3 K, {, O# N. ? Yr. 1
# ]) @( F& h1 Y* ~9 J2 ~1 R# v• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company), O( C2 B1 M9 f' [
% V! c& H9 F( O* [: W& C0 KUnderstanding Ratios
! ^, V* ?1 x: Y3 _3 f• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”! j" b# U- t# `/ o _
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
5 E7 K# Z2 c1 z1 G; A" \• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”8 X2 L0 H! C4 ^5 U
– Which number caused the change?
# d; X6 Z+ T6 ?9 i$ l; o/ N– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.1 z# c) ^# \" N$ f7 u
– Will these trends continue?
# u8 m" X3 e0 d3 q8 x4 ]# U– How does the company compare to the industry?& o6 e6 N' Q) e6 W) d& v0 z# i
& }% y6 m, a1 F. ^; n& Y9 [8 S
; M% S$ `1 i' V5 M* y8 u* TClassifying Costs$ B; D4 |, E1 u4 d7 B) o- t
• Variable Costs
0 O% }" U3 P& a3 A– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)) N: J7 x& ~, r( U
• Fixed Costs, }1 n5 ]& \; l( ^) P' |7 ~; [
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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