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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
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GM Overview$ I( f% D% d! b
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs) b; U8 ]% J. Z
• Objectives& T- j, q! b2 Z' h7 a2 H% y! s
– What do we “WANT” to do?6 a6 P' }7 {- z6 w" U. t2 O
• External Analysis
& @) i2 s e% m! K3 t– What do we “NEED” to do?8 U# h- E- i* A5 c8 G9 `4 V" J
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade, z+ ?& c5 T& r. X$ e1 F1 ~
• opportunities & threats# P9 P6 _" i0 Q( A
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
" b7 r }6 O; p1 c- Z! I$ V( t• Internal Analysis" V! d2 p0 T0 H: P% X
– What “CAN” we do?9 |4 U6 c" E6 [' |
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
2 l" Z& C$ y' @/ l# n, U& G• abilities, strengths & weaknesses+ J% F# K# e! _7 s# C+ v7 W" F5 E
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
2 n& Q9 Q, T: R( N$ O: @0 k
% e2 d, E2 e& ?9 i• Alternative Evaluation
. g- F/ K7 D1 J. x' _" h– What are the options?
$ s$ p' ~7 q+ L/ a) i! z. ]& a– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options: x7 o; x9 w' o
– How does this option “FIT”?
$ ^ G! d# ? @ C4 M– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
8 [% P9 ~+ E) ^$ G P& }1 c3 _– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
1 d+ M: I; ?; ^" k7 _1 z4 s! N" T+ Q* \4 I
• Decision; T7 U) P" n- d- H
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).- i' Q& j. s3 l5 P7 n" L7 _4 `
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
# M1 J7 a: V7 L- K- p" p, t* c: d• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
; d; R2 f% L- N& {0 X' t, w* V- h• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
% A8 g; g% j8 c, V4 p) r G• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?! a7 A; a7 M1 G* K: ?
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
5 b4 F; h% _6 `• Why NOT the other options?6 M2 U* y- Z+ `) p2 T5 }
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
9 X: ?% h5 w: X' X+ j1 |5 c8 ?) Uneed to be made?
- B( J9 w: `+ z5 _5 P, B
) Y: |% \' [1 r: ]0 j' n• Action Plan
5 ?6 w1 e6 l( B. f/ N• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
1 F5 i2 K) | V7 {– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
5 p/ |* \& G* \: P1 M( Y2 k; H9 _decision! {; ]$ p; u, ]8 M' f* ^# {1 I7 h
– details about timing& c S% @" o; L, |
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
* L [8 n* ^1 q D2 V# I& ]$ Y3 f– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)( J1 A- p! Z. u9 }7 Y6 x1 c
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
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Firm Valuation
1 r! s5 c; d7 I• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
. |% ~& S% F- Z$ z0 z, \/ I, ^• 3 methods of valuing a firm;+ x) k9 ?* `! b" I. u( B. u8 ?
– Net Book Value5 J+ P2 n: F; E6 \. R6 r
– Economic Appraisal
8 n! h, |3 y2 K( i/ a" h+ h. K– Capitalization of Earnings
+ l \: [( T0 M) Y* K• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the( r k& M% U$ } H9 R+ Q
company is worth.1 G/ R4 o, Z$ i1 s5 W |1 B
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???. j2 y/ v# k& s5 M1 v" f. j; Y
- q( H; K# k" j- M. H' L% _ Net Book Value (NBV)
3 x" N0 ~. ^# L" {) W7 R( G– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
5 N! `9 N# S+ m; g: i3 M• a.k.a.. the equity6 v$ h- B( X( { M# i4 l$ C
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets$ ?$ D' Q3 }! z0 S. y# h8 k
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet, }. a, k' V, L9 M# @( ?4 p, B
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
" H2 ]! t5 S& E. N0 J; a7 R
+ P9 I( F ~1 G/ q Economic Appraisal (EA)
* k1 z1 J. c- [5 k– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets& n+ M7 i7 G! k
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities9 Z! @4 t# w3 d( g5 M- x6 R6 S
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets% G* ?- D. K- Y" n
- E. s6 p0 A A7 I5 l( n7 V7 _4 L Capitalization of Earnings (CE): n7 p4 P# y; p8 L I. o/ e- R
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
0 z9 T; T/ n2 Y5 T+ R4 W• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
! A: {; N1 I8 s– NPAT * P/E ratio = value3 S; L1 n5 d0 g2 k1 ^
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)5 j- k H- y/ @# ]( [% p" ~
• Assuming changes (projected statement)
" F( b% G. B9 ]. }0 T• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
5 p; j: B" N7 T: q: d– Select a reasonable P/E multiple$ X8 C, ]0 ~& g3 d* E* L1 J
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
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• P/E Multiple
5 ?+ x+ x6 s4 z8 I" ~– Rules of thumb;
8 d# C+ W" e9 y• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples4 ?5 Q- v3 O: m, @
from 5 to 15., f2 A9 O/ L t( b+ Y& L! L
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.1 [# d4 f9 Z# \ ]8 W B2 X. v% z
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
" M/ Q9 r5 V7 B; n& g; X– growth increases a multiple
3 q; y* _- z- ?% D, ~. e0 k– risk decreases a multiple- y+ v& H6 T$ }9 D& ?. T& s2 H) M
4 D% |& g5 X/ j5 _: o9 {: cTheir Associated Ratios
$ \/ K1 A- \. G6 a8 c. t; u5 c4 ?• Profitability;$ C$ p1 N8 h; u& K5 M. b
– Business goal - to make $$4 O/ p2 t8 F4 X7 N+ N
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
, ^/ Z9 B1 N" H3 v* t# I• Stability;
1 F& f& z0 j% |– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
. L' M6 u: N4 S% s$ c– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
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6 G5 W& l# c! u+ M3 k' r5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
+ \) X4 u- }" e# V • Liquidity;
! u% N# t9 H6 R/ @* y+ V– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
% E$ N a/ r) ?* P2 `1 l– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
8 b% T" @9 X+ k; C$ [obligations)
8 H! G: _. @% A2 m6 s. I$ M2 `7 [• Efficiency;
* R1 @" _1 o7 F/ s# o– Business goal - to efficiently use assets/ P! G! z4 F$ b4 G7 ]7 f
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
% h% u; c7 z6 D, Y* r; E+ S* n: ]1 R; `
0 V! O8 [" z+ X) E1 h( {2 J0 z0 R• Growth;
/ P5 _3 _& ]9 w) C# I, X% `" M* A– Business goal - to increase in size2 c6 P0 @1 Y3 E2 e5 o; _9 `
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth' b6 Y' V4 l; b5 v5 ^
! U/ | t" \' X$ S+ a! [. oInterpreting the Ratios: y& d$ u# C5 E+ K0 e% O) f
• Profitability;, I) p# J6 X( D
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
; ?! t6 E: ^& _8 ^) sI/S items * 100 = % g" j5 x8 X8 G! J3 [+ c* T
Sales
' b, X) Z t' s* L7 h• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
1 s) ?; H! O8 l% t' _4 Q$ P– Return on Investment/Equity* V$ P0 u4 G' m) r* W+ ]2 Z! w" S! s
Profit ATB4D = %
% j$ O' R# O4 f$ ]* S( v& FAverage Equity
, g* p- G- Z' L- f$ O: A0 h/ Y[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]$ { _/ r" c, v& H: _
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
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• Stability;
8 f( W& G2 o5 u: ?. ^ F– Net Worth: Total Assets
4 h* C p4 r5 b0 Z5 F9 D0 Q) z1 oTotal Equity = % : Y. P$ H! M2 @ K' _
Total Assets& P4 [4 q9 C" F& Z7 a* s, G
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
( n7 @: V$ }' t' H– Debt to Assets
! D6 q- J4 x% j2 pTotal Debt = % ! G$ A: y4 N. ~" O6 b% m2 F0 e0 L
Total Assets
; @4 j; h0 n& m1 I. h• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt2 N6 l. [( w) A0 |' V. q: D
– Interest Coverage
; I4 Y$ s# E, u2 V/ H% [' P' ? EBIT = # times' G- L9 `" P% f+ E6 u8 O0 z
Interest Expense
: K' z* C% c3 m" o" N, M• tells us how many times we can pay interest
+ E& A o' \* F- x- @1 i
* V Y1 B+ Z) K8 O0 ?4 @• Liquidity;/ [/ Q$ p: a8 d+ R3 h
– Current Ratio
! [% n; S4 M7 z$ DCurrent Assets = X:1
2 i" L5 g( V7 O8 `* A% o+ iCurrent Liabilities
) a2 l% k1 w! q: j0 C• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts9 c! d8 l" ]$ |% J
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1( {5 j6 A; Q# _, V( l, P
– Acid Test
" w# }+ o! @* Q. R2 O3 @Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1- C# d7 L1 P5 E- v0 B
Current Liabilities/ S9 s6 N* _! a+ C
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us- o/ t) K6 T4 i# l @# d6 T
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1
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/ O, C C! b4 H+ k0 I' J; L$ ~– Working Capital
/ E- z' w$ w6 A. x1 lC.A - C.L = $X- v+ y, B5 h1 P6 _9 a: K6 R4 u. G
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
$ k6 v+ J6 {3 ? p, p! I
' k' w: h2 O8 h' ^$ w# [Efficiency;
$ h) s5 w/ E3 m5 h4 g6 x– Age of Receivables
8 S% C' [1 e' DAccounts Receivabl = # Days
) F( |' K4 k' c$ @% I/ w. u2 ]* g (Sales / 365)
6 k# U9 ~/ U8 [• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$" I% }# H! C% B+ z2 l1 m8 H
n% T7 ^9 g9 Q7 h& s& \; F– Age Of Payables
9 [- b; v: p! @. }6 p4 n( r7 GAccounts Payable = # Days: T/ o5 A) d: z% Z
(Purchases* / 365)
$ V5 f8 T/ U) E' }% u• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
/ q+ u2 D+ e9 j5 n* H" E% F x
– Age of Inventory5 B1 V" l! j6 w4 Z) \# v) V
Inventory = # Days
' @5 w3 h0 z) w4 `" Z5 x; B/ S D(COGS / 365)
/ z% u' y$ o# v• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse9 N6 G, B2 O& f
' m' j8 C+ p1 k$ c n* \% U/ @: l• Growth;
. d0 h& C% e4 v" t* ], S– Sales% U( r2 s% H& m* k4 F# f
– Net Income T N8 N n6 m
– Total Assets o1 D& D/ I# Z4 c/ h# I5 r; a! i
– Equity7 p( a! a" B! \" V( K1 h/ c: [
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
5 z' R' Q+ d `) I% i" v, t5 c Yr. 1
. u. j9 L5 p4 a2 T, C% w# U• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
/ |4 j0 y- R$ u
3 p& Y- H- Z) ]: Q8 |, GUnderstanding Ratios
. k% l4 m" |8 B• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”* q1 _8 \" K/ d0 \- W1 @, S
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
C1 z) o) @3 f. h' }" N• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”. G& b6 @5 u' I* Q6 y
– Which number caused the change?
7 l4 ]( f3 s/ M: ^) }. e3 ^– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
2 ^$ N M {: N– Will these trends continue?" t9 s$ J3 v% o( H; X# v
– How does the company compare to the industry?7 b" Z/ ]5 p9 [/ p! Y* _5 H
( n3 I) v$ J" W
1 T( L4 u. ~$ ]% ]$ r+ u
Classifying Costs
# S" B! P! h( _! h# ?7 B) h• Variable Costs
; y; X" a$ i/ x4 S– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
& G$ s: K2 ]2 n6 |1 J• Fixed Costs2 @9 H5 }; B. w" ]" q" R3 W
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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